July 2025 Mortgage Market Update: What's Really Happening This Summer?

If you're like most homeowners (or soon-to-be homeowners) in Canada, you've probably been wondering:

The Big Questions:

  • Is it a good time to buy?
  • Should I wait or make a move now?
  • Are rates going down?

Totally fair questions. And the truth is… there's no one-size-fits-all answer.

But here's what we can say with confidence: the July 2025 mortgage market update shows us that things are shifting. But, the shifts are in different ways depending on where you live and what your financial goals are.

Let's walk through it together 👇

First, a Look at the Big Picture

Savvy investor meticulously real estate weighs interest rates, investment opportunities, and loan options, seeking to maximize their financial well-being. banking, buy, debt, money, mortgage, business

Graph depicting the latest housing prices and sales in Canada as of July 2025. Source: Wowa.ca

The Bank of Canada held rates again in June, keeping the overnight rate at 2.75%. There's a lot of chatter around whether we'll see another cut this summer, but it's not looking likely.

Inflation is still sticky, sitting just under the BoC's 2% target, and that's enough to keep rates where they are for now.

That said, the impact on the summer housing market in Canada has been pretty mixed:

$691,299
National home prices average
47%
Sales-to-new-listings ratio (balanced market)

But regionally? That's where things get interesting…

Manitoba: A Balanced Market with Opportunities

If you're in Manitoba (especially Winnipeg and surrounding areas), you're seeing a more balanced market compared to other provinces.

Inventory is steady. Prices are stabilizing.

Manitoba is experiencing a more moderate market with steady inventory levels and reasonable price appreciation. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio around 52%, it's a balanced market that favors neither buyers nor sellers exclusively.

This means:

  • Fair pricing for both buyers and sellers
  • Reasonable negotiation room
  • Good selection without overwhelming competition

Manitoba offers one of the most stable and affordable markets in Canada right now.

Model homes waiting to be sold in a California Subdivison

Family home for sale in Manitoba suburb during summer housing market 2025

Alberta: Still a Seller's Market

Meanwhile, out west in Alberta, it's a different story.

Sales holding strong
Inventory balanced
Market leans toward sellers

In cities like Calgary and Edmonton, homes are still moving quickly, and prices are staying fairly stable if not rising.

If you're thinking of buying here, you'll want to be ready with a strong plan and pre-approval (reach out for help with this).

It's About Strategy, Not Rates

This is a big one.

A lot of people are still holding out for "lower rates" before they make a move (whether that's buying, refinancing, or renewing).

But here's the honest truth: rates may not drop as fast (or as far) as people hoped.

What matters more than timing the market is having a clear mortgage strategy, which is one that works for you.

Whether that means:

  • Stretching amortization to reduce monthly payments
  • Refinancing in Canada to roll in debt and improve cash flow
  • Locking into a shorter-term product to stay flexible
  • Or planning your mortgage renewal before your lender sends a generic offer

The key is building a plan based on your goals, not the headlines. This is very important.

Real Talk: What Can You Do Right Now?

Here are a few ways you can move forward confidently this summer:

If you're buying in Manitoba: Take advantage of a balanced market with fair pricing. You have time to make informed decisions without the pressure of extreme competition.

If you're in Alberta: Make sure you're pre-approved and have a clear purchase strategy (seller's markets move fast).

If you're up for renewal this year: Don't auto-renew. Rates may not drop before year-end, and refinancing could actually work in your favour.

If cash flow is tight: Let's talk about extending your amortization or consolidating debt. Many homeowners are surprised how much they can save monthly without adding to their mortgage.

(even if rates do drop, those percentage differences don't matter as much as your unique situation and strategy).

Real estate agent explaining property details to a client in a modern office, showcasing a model house and documents.

Homeowners meeting with mortgage advisor to review summer mortgage strategy

Final Thoughts

The July 2025 mortgage market update reminds us that no matter what's happening with the economy, the best decisions come from a place of clarity and confidence, not fear or guesswork.

Don't rely on the government, Bank of Canada, or those in power to have your best interests at heart. Look after yourself first and make solid plans with expert help and guidance.

If you're unsure what your next step should be, that's okay.
That's what I'm here for.

Reach out and let's have a conversation about your plans for the rest of 2025

(whether that's buying, selling, refinancing, or just reviewing your options)

Get Your Free Consultation

You don't need to navigate this market alone.