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A New Political Chapter, Familiar Housing Questions

Exploration and Analysis

Discover customized mortgage solutions and strategies with expert guidance from The Spooner Group.

Introduction: A New Political Chapter, Familiar Housing Questions

    The 2025 Canadian federal election has concluded, with the Liberals forming a minority government. Questions remain about the potential impact on the housing market. Uncertainty surrounds mortgage rates and their future trajectory.
  • Affordability continues to be a key concern for potential homebuyers.
  • Will housing prices drop?
  • Will the government introduce new incentives?
  • What types of homes will they be prioritizing?
  • Should I buy now or wait?
  • Will rates go up again?

Let's break it all down, and help you make confident decisions, no matter what headlines are saying.

What a Minority Government Actually Means for Housing

A minority government often leads to slower, more cautious changes.
Policies take longer to pass, and compromises are more common.
So while you'll hear promises around: πŸ—οΈ Housing supply πŸ’Έ Tax credits or affordability incentives 🏦 Lending regulations …it may take months or even years for these to be implemented (if they happen at all).

What to Watch

Key areas to watch:

  • Changes to first-time homebuyer programs
  • Policies aimed at speeding up new construction
  • Adjustments to mortgage qualification rules or stress tests
  • Policies aimed at improving affordability 
πŸ‘‰ But remember: the government doesn't have full autonomy over your finances.
πŸ‘‰ They influence it no doubt, but your personal mortgage strategy is still the biggest factor in your financial outcome.

Where Home Prices Sit in May 2025 (Compared to Past Years)

Despite headlines, home prices are rising again in many Canadian cities. According to the latest 5-year trends:

  • πŸ“ˆ Prices are up compared to May 2024
  • πŸ“‰ Still below the early 2022 peakβ€”but staying steady across Canada
  • 🏘️ Inventory remains low, especially in urban areas
  • πŸ“Š Buyer demand is strong with the rate cuts
Graph showing Canadas real estate trends: average sold price and transactions from 07/2020 to 10/2025. Highlight on 5 years.

Thinking of Selling?

With low supply and motivated buyers, sellers still have strong negotiating power. If you're thinking of moving up or downsizing, timing matters.

Thinking of Buying?

Prices are trending up, and with interest rates lower than last year, getting in sooner could be a smart move. Waiting for prices to "crash" may not pay off – Canada's housing market historically rebounds quickly.

Will Mortgage Rates Rise or Fall in 2025?

The Bank of Canada has already cut interest rates 7 times since mid-2024. And many analysts expect 1–2 more cuts by the end of 2025. Right now, average mortgage rates are:

  • β€’ Mid-4% for many fixed products
  • β€’ Even lower for certain variable options

But this could change depending on:

  • β€’ Government spending and fiscal policy
  • β€’ Tariffs and inflation
  • β€’ Global economic shifts

πŸ‘‰ Bottom line: If you're waiting for "the perfect rate," you're looking at it wrong. You should act when you can afford to (and when you have a plan in place). We haven't had rates like this since 2022.

What You Should Do Right Now Based on Your Situation

Here's what you should be thinking about depending on your goals:

If You're Buying

  • β€’ Get pre-approved before you go house hunting
  • β€’ Consider your 5- and 10-year goals
  • β€’ Focus on monthly affordability, not just the sticker price

If You're Refinancing

  • β€’ If you locked in during 2022 or 2023, you're likely overpaying
  • β€’ Use your equity to consolidate high-interest debt
  • β€’ Free up monthly cash flow as economic pressures continue

If Your Renewal Is Coming Up

  • β€’ Don't accept your lender's first offer
  • β€’ Shop around (or better yet, let a mortgage broker do it for you)
  • β€’ This is a big chance to save money – plan ahead

If You're Selling

  • β€’ Take advantage of buyer momentum
  • β€’ A strategic listing (with proper advice) can increase your sale price
  • β€’ Know your buying power before selling if you plan to move

Is It a Good Time to Buy a Home in 2025?

Let's be honest: there's no such thing as a perfect time to buy. But history shows that people who buy with a plan tend to:

  • β€’ Build equity
  • β€’ Beat future price jumps and falls
  • β€’ Gain long-term stability

Those who wait on the sidelines often miss opportunities because of fear.

Final Thoughts: Focus on What You Can Control

Election results, rate predictions, and housing headlines will continue to shift. But your mortgage strategy shouldn't be based on headlines – it should be based on your goals, timeline, and finances.

  • βœ… Buying, selling, renewing, or refinancing – there's a smart move for every situation.
  • βœ… Don't let fear or politics paralyze your next step.
  • βœ… Talk to someone who can give you honest, personalized advice.

Ready to Make Your Move?

If you want to talk through your options (or just get clarity without pressure) I'm here to help. πŸ“© Reach out anytime to book a no-obligation chat.

Your goals. Your plan. Your move.

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